Oscar Predictions

I know it's a little early in the week to be gearing up for the Oscars (which air this Sunday), but since I'm gonna be busy the rest of the week with work, moving, and a potential visit for Jude, I thought I'd get these out of the way now.

I make predictions in 9 main categories, basically the only ones I know anything about. Last year I went 7 for 9, incorrectly predicting that the Academy would see through Renee Zellweger's Kathy Bates impersonation in "Cold Mountain" and laugh in the face of LOTR when it was nominated alongside "Mystic River" and "City of God" in the screenplay category (it inexplicably won). This year I expect less success because I haven't been paying much attention to the buzz or the waves of support that accompany the Oscar campaigns. Although I do know "Million Dollar Baby (Poop)" will win big.

Predicted winners are in RED

BEST PICTURE
THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY POOP
RAY
SIDEWAYS

A victory for "The Aviator" would make the most sense to me, but it would offend the opinion of lots of people out there who were deeply moved by Eastwood's emotional machinations. Hey, whatever floats their boat. And apparently their boats float on poop. POOP. POOOOOP.

DIRECTING
Martin Scorsese, THE AVIATOR
Clint Eastwood, MILLION DOLLAR BABY POOP
Taylor Hackford, RAY
Alexander Payne, SIDEWAYS
Mike Leigh, VERA DRAKE

The two powerplayers here are Scorsese and Eastwood. Anyone with two eyes can see that "The Aviator" features far more directorial flourishes and sophisticated techniques than Eastwood's solid but unimpressive camerawork. The fact that Eastwood has already won an directing Oscar and Scorsese hasn't (a friggin artistic travesty) shouldn't be the reason Scorsese wins. He deserves to win this year with "The Aviator" because it's a great film (he didn't last time with Gangs of New York). And, yeah, it's been a long time coming. Give the man his due for godsakes. Now, if Michel Gondry ("Eternal Sunshine"), Walter Salles ("Motorcycle Diaries"), or Michael Mann ("Collateral") were nominated, I might be having second thoughts. But no one in this category deserves to win besides Scorsese.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Don Cheadle - HOTEL RWANDA
Johnny Depp - FINDING NEVERLAND
Leonardo DiCaprio - THE AVIATOR
Clint Eastwood - MILLION DOLLAR BABY POOP
Jamie Foxx - RAY

Foxx is the clear frontrunner. He nailed Ray Charles, his performance rose above the lackluster material, and he has courted the Academy nicely. But personally, DiCaprio gave the more absorbing portrayl, surprising even his most ardent critics, but maybe that's because he had a better written character (Ray Charles's lifestory is great, but Hughes's is better). The fact that Eastwood is nominated here indicates very strong support for his film, even though he plays little more than a grumpy old man. In a year that featured great work from Paul Giamatti, Jim Carrey, and Christian Bale, Eastwood's nomination is BULLSHIT. Foxx will no doubt win, and all my harping will be for nothing, but all this "Baby" love has pissed me off.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Annette Bening - BEING JULIA
Catalina Sandino Moreno - MARIA FULL OF GRACE
Imelda Staunton - VERA DRAKE
Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY POOP
Kate Winslet - ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND

Looking at this list, you'd think 2004 was a dim year for lead actresses, and you'd be right. But I'd mention Laura Linney's everywoman character in "P.S." and Uma Thurman's kick-ass (literally) physical performance in "Kill Bill: Vol 2" as proof that things aren't all bad for actresses. But still. Not good. Poor Annette, losing once again to the star of "The Next Karate Kid." Methinks she'll need a little loving from Warren on Oscar night. Hey Warren, put that mirror down and please your wife, you narcissist.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Alda - THE AVIATOR
Thomas Haden Church - SIDEWAYS
Jamie Foxx - COLLATERAL
Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY POOP
Clive Owen - CLOSER

Oh look, Morgan Freeman is playing a wise, tells-it-like-it-is black sage to his white friend. Where have we seen this before? Take your pick:

Driving Miss Daisy
Glory
Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves
Unforgiven
The Shawshank Redemption

Yeah, suck it Freeman.

(in all seriousness, he's never won, so ok, let him have it).

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR
Laura Linney - KINSEY
Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS
Sophie Okonedo - HOTEL RWANDA
Natalie Portman - CLOSER

I would predict Madsen, because, duh, she was awesome. But I think voters will see this as their chance to award "The Aviator" if they don't want to give it Best Picture or Director. I'm not a huge fan of Blanchett's Hepburn, but I'm a huge fan of her general, so bring it on. Both her and Linney are the future Streeps.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
BEFORE SUNSET
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY POOP
THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
SIDEWAYS

This is where "Sideways" has the best chance, and I cannot see it going to "Neverland" or "Sunset" (what is this adapted from?). "Diaries" was a great film, and I would be extremely happy if it won, but "Sideways" is a writer's film, through and through. But, sigh, "M$BPoop" might rob yet another category. For once I'll be an optimist.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
THE AVIATOR
ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
HOTEL RWANDA
THE INCREDIBLES
VERA DRAKE

The nominations for "The Aviator" and "Hotel Rwanda" are dubious to me because one's a biopic and the other is based on a true story, so they've gotta be adapted from fairly substantial source material. But anyway, "Eternal Sunshine" is Charlie Kaufmann's best work, and that's saying a lot. And he won the Writer's Guild Award (as did "Sideways"). So there.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
THE INCREDIBLES
SHARK TALE
SHREK 2

As if there's any doubt. What a wonderful film. "Shark Tale" should be ashamed to be in such company.

There you have it. My predicts. I'll try to blog my way through the broadcast on Sunday. Curses and all.